Special Bulletin: GDP Gain in 4Q Sets Stage for Recovery

January, 2020

GDP Positive in 4Q; Trend to Impact Growth Potential in 2021

Key Takeaways:

  • GDP grew at 4% annualized pace in 4Q 2020, roughly in-line with expectations

  • Economic activity shrank a total of 3.5% in 2020, the first full-year decrease since 2009

 
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  • The pace of growth moderated towards the end of the year as the support of fiscal stimulus faded and a spike in COVID-19 cases prompted renewed restrictions

  • The pandemic surge could dampen growth in 1Q2021, but widespread vaccine distribution will likely result in a lift later in the year

  • Pent up demand, idle cash in the hands of consumers and a fresh round of stimulus will fuel accelerated economic gains once the vaccine hits critical mass

 
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COVID-19Peter StandleyPolicy, 2, Performance, Jan 2021